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Horn of Africa geopolitics | The Mesob Journal • Mesob Journal
NEW ALAMEIN, Egypt, Oct. 4, 2026 — Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia have adopted a joint declaration setting out common positions on Red Sea governance, Sudan’s territorial integrity, Somalia’s sovereignty and the Nile, while establishing a mechanism for continued coordination among the four countries.
The African Union moved quickly to clarify its position after Cairo objected. It has yet to publicly address a more direct institutional question: Ethiopia’s expulsion of Eritrean diplomats accredited to the African Union itself.
The U.S. urged Ethiopia and Eritrea to respect sovereignty and resume dialogue under their 2018 peace framework, without assigning blame for the latest escalation.
Egypt reaffirmed support for Eritrea’s sovereignty as Presidents el-Sisi and Isaias met in New Alamein to discuss Red Sea security and economic cooperation.
President Isaias Afwerki travels to Egypt for a regional security summit and bilateral talks with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on Red Sea and Horn of Africa cooperation.
The UN envoy’s new direct channel with Ansar Allah, combined with talks in Riyadh, reflects several principles Eritrea set out weeks earlier: Yemen cannot be settled militarily, the conflict should not be absorbed into wider regional wars, and the security of the Red Sea requires serious engagement with the states and actors that actually sit along it.
Foreign Minister Osman Saleh used Eritrea’s address to challenge the annual UN ritual itself, placing economic justice, peace and a more equitable international order at the centre of the country’s message.
The African Union’s own UNGA81 readouts left Ethiopia out. A jointly agreed communiqué from the same diplomatic round shows that Ethiopia and the Pretoria Agreement were explicitly discussed. The discrepancy deserves an explanation.
Council members condemned continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and threats to commercial navigation through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, stressing navigational freedoms under international law as fighting moves closer to the strait.
Eritrea and Egypt have restated that the Red Sea's security and governance belong to its littoral states, in talks at the 81st UN General Assembly that also covered trade, investment, ports and maritime transport.
Eritrea's foreign minister raised what Asmara calls the provocative acts of Ethiopia's Prosperity Party towards its neighbours with UN Secretary-General António Guterres in New York, alongside Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb governance and support for a united, sovereign Sudan.
A May 2026 SWP study calls the UAE one of the most aggressive external actors in African conflicts, and names Sudan, Libya, Somalia and Ethiopia. Ten countries — from the RSF's supply corridors to conflict gold in eastern Congo — show how Emirati military, financial and logistical networks connect wars that look domestic.