International Crisis Group’s 18 February 2026 briefing advertises itself as conflict prevention. In reality, it performs something closer to narrative management: it repackages Ethiopia’s Red Sea ambition as a “grievance” to be accommodated, while keeping Eritrea boxed into the f
South Sudan, the world's youngest nation, is teetering on the brink of a devastating return to full-scale war. While international attention is often diverted, the country is experiencing a severe political, humanitarian, and security crisis, fuelled by a collapsing peace deal, v
What Addis Ababa has spent two years denying is now staring it in the face—on White House letterhead. The January 16 letter from Donald Trump to Abdel Fattah el-Sisi isn’t just about mediation. It’s a signal. Clear, deliberate, and consequential. Washington is aligning itself
A Regional Security Threat and Potential for Destabilisation of the Horn of Africa, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden Regions and Redrawing the Map of the Horn of Africa On December 26, 2025, the State of Israel announced its formal recognition of the Republic of Somaliland as an
Israel’s announcement on Thursday recognizing Somaliland as an independent and sovereign state has triggered immediate diplomatic fallout across the Horn of Africa and the Middle East, reopening long-standing legal and geopolitical fault lines rather than delivering the stability
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