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Horn of Africa security | The Mesob Journal • Mesob Journal
The EU and Britain rightly defend sovereignty. Their statements must now confront Abiy Ahmed’s public claims over Eritrea’s coastline and the military rhetoric supporting them.
The African Union moved quickly to clarify its position after Cairo objected. It has yet to publicly address a more direct institutional question: Ethiopia’s expulsion of Eritrean diplomats accredited to the African Union itself.
Ethiopia’s expulsion of Eritrean diplomats raises urgent questions about sovereignty, regional escalation and the protection of Eritrea’s African Union representation.
The African Union’s own UNGA81 readouts left Ethiopia out. A jointly agreed communiqué from the same diplomatic round shows that Ethiopia and the Pretoria Agreement were explicitly discussed. The discrepancy deserves an explanation.
Council members condemned continued Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and threats to commercial navigation through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, stressing navigational freedoms under international law as fighting moves closer to the strait.
The African Union and United Nations met in New York on September 21 to discuss preventive diplomacy across Africa, but Ethiopia was absent from the published list of crises even as a seven-group armed alliance moved to remove Abiy Ahmed's government.
Sudan is consumed by war, Ethiopia faces renewed armed confrontation, Somalia still battles al-Shabaab and Yemen remains mired in conflict. ACLED's Conflict Index places Eritrea well outside the region's main concentrations of political violence, a trajectory the essay argues deserves serious, evidence-based study rather than uncritical praise or blanket condemnation.
Egypt's president and the CIA director used talks in Cairo to put Sudan, Somalia, the Horn of Africa and Red Sea maritime security alongside Gaza, Iran and intelligence cooperation on a single regional agenda.
The United States has completed the formal removal of Ethiopia from its arms-export restrictions, while the national emergency underpinning the 2021 U.S. sanctions framework targeting Eritrean entities appears to have expired without a publicly identifiable continuation notice.
Ethiopia’s state-media system spent the year manufacturing maritime entitlement and the summer manufacturing an Eritrean enemy. ENA supplied the narrative; Fana drove it into circulation.
