Enough Is Enough: Abiy Ahmed’s March Toward War — and the African Union’s Unforgivable Silence
There are moments in African politics when the truth must be said without varnish, without diplomatic hedging, without the cowardice of “neutrality.” We are in one of those moments now. Ethiopia’s rulers — from Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to his Foreign Minister, generals, propagandists, and state-aligned media — are openly, consistently, and aggressively preparing the ground for a full-scale war against Eritrea. That is not an opinion. That is their own documented language.
And the African Union, sitting in the very capital where these threats are manufactured, has chosen silence.
Not caution.
Not mediation.
Silence.
A silence that is becoming complicity.
A Regime Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud
For over two years, the Ethiopian leadership has escalated rhetoric that would, anywhere else in the world, trigger immediate warnings from regional blocs and the UN Security Council.
But in Ethiopia, it’s treated as normal political discourse.
Abiy Ahmed has declared repeatedly — in public speeches, in parliament, on national television — that Eritrea’s sovereign territory, specifically the Port of Assab, is something Ethiopia must obtain “peacefully or by force.” He has drawn grotesque comparisons, hinting that Eritrea could be made to resemble Gaza or Ukraine — a threat genocidal in tone and reckless in intent.
His generals go further. Some have pleaded with FANO militias and the Tigray Defense Forces to halt their battles because “the bigger mission” is to seize Eritrea’s ports. Others have pushed narratives claiming Assab was “stolen,” that it “belongs to Ethiopia,” and that reclaiming it is a national duty.
This is the architecture of war.
Not metaphorical war.
Not Twitter war.
Real war.
And it’s unfolding in plain view.
The AU’s Silence — A Moral Failure
What is the African Union’s response to one of its member states threatening another with invasion?
Nothing.
Absolutely nothing.
This is the same AU that issues statements on conflicts thousands of miles away — including Ukraine — but cannot muster even a whisper when the host state of its headquarters, engulfed in multiple civil wars, displacement, and mass starvation, threatens to redraw internationally recognized borders through force.
Where is the concern for the African Charter?
For sovereignty?
For regional stability?
For peace?
When Eritrea is threatened, the AU suddenly remembers how to mute itself.
This is not reluctance.
This is abdication.
The UN’s Familiar Blind Spot
The United Nations, too, is falling back into its old habits: respond only when the bullets start flying, only when the displacement begins, only when the humanitarian catastrophe becomes too big to ignore. Then, and only then, do we get the ritualistic appeals for calm, the speeches about “both sides,” the calls for restraint.
But as I wrote on June 8:
“Silence now will not excuse false neutrality later — there is no moral equivalence here.”
Eritrea has not threatened Ethiopia.
Eritrea has not mobilized for an invasion.
Eritrea has not declared another state’s territory as “existential” for its own survival.
There is one expansionist party in this equation, and it is Ethiopia’s ruling party.
The UN knows this.
The AU knows this.
The region knows this.
But the loudest alarm bells are coming from ordinary people on X, not from the organizations designed — and funded — to prevent war.
A Region on the Brink Because One Man Wants a Coastline
Ethiopia’s internal situation is collapsing.
Multiple civil wars.
FANO insurgency.
TPLF re-militarization.
Oromo protests.
A devastated economy.
Millions displaced.
Famine conditions in several regions.
No amount of UAE money, PR consultants, or militarized propaganda can hide the truth: Abiy Ahmed leads the weakest, most fragmented federal government Ethiopia has seen in decades.
And history has taught us what desperate leaders sometimes do:
they reach for an external enemy.
Eritrea is being cast as that manufactured enemy — a convenient scapegoat for internal failure.
The port rhetoric is not about economics.
It is not about development.
It is about rewriting the political narrative inside Ethiopia.
But the cost will be unimaginable.
Where Are the “Human Rights Defenders” Now?
NGOs, activists, analysts — the same chorus that once camped on Eritrea’s doorsteps — are suddenly asleep. They will reappear the minute conflict erupts, lectures prepared, reports half-drafted, ready to explain why Eritrea must show restraint or why “both sides escalated.”
But today, when actual war threats are coming from Addis Ababa’s highest offices?
Silence.
You don’t get to play referee after cheering during the warm-up.
What Is at Stake? Everything.
Another Horn of Africa war will not be a border skirmish. It will be catastrophic:
- Millions displaced across Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Sudan
- Total collapse of regional infrastructure
- Naval insecurity in the Red Sea
- A humanitarian collapse spanning multiple countries
- A region already bleeding pushed into generational instability
This is preventable — today.
Tomorrow it may not be.
The Warning Stands.
My message in June was not hyperbole. It was a warning grounded in evidence:
“The world must be put on notice.”
Ethiopia’s leaders are saying, clearly and repeatedly, that they want war. They are naming the target. They are naming the objective. They are preparing their public. They are mobilizing their military rhetoric.
The AU and UN have a choice:
- Act now, or
- Pretend to be shocked later.
And to the AU, headquartered in a state threatening to annex its neighbor:
Stand with the people of Africa — not the ambitions of one government.
History will remember who spoke when it mattered. And who stayed silent as the drums of war echoed through its own halls.