Abiy Ahmed’s Red Sea Fantasies: Manufactured Conflicts and the Isolation of a Failing RegimeBahti Meskerem: From Adal’s First Shots to Eritrea’s Unbroken Path of SovereigntyThe Red Sea Corridor and the Battle for the Region’s SoulEritrea 2024: UN Report Shows a Nation Advancing on Its Own TermsEthiopia’s “Sea Gate” Delusion: The Prosperity Party’s Dangerous Gamble Against International LawFrom Dust to Harvest: How Eritrea’s Community Dams Are Greening the DesertEritrea at the UN: Sovereignty, Cooperation, and the Red Sea FallacyEthiopia–Eritrea: Lies, Diversions, and the Abyss AheadTrump Signals Reset: US–Eritrea Relations Enter a New PhaseThe Guardian’s Manufactured Outrage: A Political Hit Piece Against EritreaAbiy Ahmed’s Red Sea Fantasies: Manufactured Conflicts and the Isolation of a Failing RegimeBahti Meskerem: From Adal’s First Shots to Eritrea’s Unbroken Path of SovereigntyThe Red Sea Corridor and the Battle for the Region’s SoulEritrea 2024: UN Report Shows a Nation Advancing on Its Own TermsEthiopia’s “Sea Gate” Delusion: The Prosperity Party’s Dangerous Gamble Against International LawFrom Dust to Harvest: How Eritrea’s Community Dams Are Greening the DesertEritrea at the UN: Sovereignty, Cooperation, and the Red Sea FallacyEthiopia–Eritrea: Lies, Diversions, and the Abyss AheadTrump Signals Reset: US–Eritrea Relations Enter a New PhaseThe Guardian’s Manufactured Outrage: A Political Hit Piece Against Eritrea
The Mesob Journal
banner
Subscribe
Ethiopia

Abiy Ahmed’s Red Sea Fantasies: Manufactured Conflicts and the Isolation of a Failing Regime

By Ternafi••04 min read
Abiy Ahmed’s Red Sea Fantasies: Manufactured Conflicts and the Isolation of a Failing Regime
Ethiopia's PM Abiy Ahmed during his book's inauguration speech.

On September 8, ahead of the inauguration of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed once again ignited regional tensions by declaring on state-run EBC that “it is only a matter of time before Ethiopia regains control of the Red Sea port of Assab.” He went further: “The mistake took place yesterday, and will be corrected tomorrow.” At his book launch the following evening, he struck the same chord, saying that any Ethiopian who believes the country will “forever remain a geographic prisoner” is already “a dead one.”

Abiy claims Ethiopia seeks peaceful access to the sea. But his language betrays the opposite: a thinly veiled threat of ownership through force. No one has denied Ethiopia commercial access to Eritrean ports; the problem is that Abiy has refused to pursue it through diplomacy, contracts, or normal trade agreements. Instead, he opts for theatrics - if you cannot convince, confuse.

The UAE Lifeline and a Manufactured Crisis

Abiy’s strategy fits a broader pattern. Since coming to power, he has cultivated patrons in the UAE, trading sovereignty for financial and political survival. Emirati funds, military drones, and logistical support sustained him during the brutal Tigray war. But foreign subsidies cannot cover the gaping holes in Ethiopia’s fractured state. Oromia is burning, Amhara is under siege, and multiple insurgencies gnaw away at the center’s authority. The economy limps along only because of periodic injections from the IMF, World Bank, and bilateral lenders.

In such a context, Abiy reaches for the oldest authoritarian trick: manufacture an external crisis to distract from domestic collapse. The Red Sea becomes his rallying cry, a nationalist stage play designed to unify fractured constituencies. But in reality, this is not a strategy of strength - it is an admission of weakness.

Eritrea: The Convenient Scapegoat

Eritrea has once again become the target of Abiy’s rhetoric, not because it poses a threat to Ethiopia, but because it represents an easy scapegoat. By evoking Ethiopia’s past annexation of Eritrea, Abiy harks back to an era universally condemned as unlawful and abominable. This is political blasphemy of the highest order, as Eritrea’s Ministry of Information underscored in its September 8 statement: resurrecting fantasies of annexation is a red line that no responsible actor should contemplate crossing.

Eritrea’s position has remained consistent: it welcomes commercial partnerships, regional cooperation, and peaceful coexistence, but it will not compromise its sovereignty. Abiy knows this. Which is why he seeks not practical access to Eritrean ports, but the symbolism of reclaiming them - an illusion of victory to mask his failures at home.

Global and Regional Pushback

International reactions have been telling. In the UK’s House of Lords, ministers reaffirmed that access to the sea must be pursued peacefully, warning Ethiopia against rhetoric that undermines sovereignty and territorial integrity. The United States has also sent diplomatic cautionary notes, with senior officials stressing Ethiopia’s responsibility to engage its neighbors constructively.

Abiy has not found Western backers for his Red Sea ambitions, only quiet rebukes couched in diplomatic language. Even his Emirati patrons will hesitate to bankroll an open war that would destabilize the Horn and threaten Red Sea shipping lanes - lifelines for their own economy.

Confusion as Strategy

At home, Abiy tries to balance contradictory narratives. On one hand, he speaks of “peaceful accession” to the sea; on the other, he promises to “correct mistakes” with the inevitability of a conqueror. The duality is intentional. It is meant to confuse international audiences into believing Ethiopia is reasonable while mobilizing domestic audiences with revanchist zeal.

This is not leadership. It is gaslighting at a national scale. As Eritrea’s Ministry of Information noted, Abiy’s Prosperity Party hosts climate summits and Afro-Caribbean conferences to project an image of statesmanship abroad, even as it presides over economic collapse and internal wars at home.

The Horn’s Dangerous Crossroads

The tragedy is that Ethiopia does not need war. Its geography has never condemned it to “prison.” Its ports of access -Djibouti, Port Sudan, Berbera - remain open through commercial agreements. Eritrea has never opposed equitable, negotiated arrangements. The only prison is the one Abiy has built for himself: a prison of hubris, delusion, and isolation.

For Eritrea, the line is clear: sovereignty is non-negotiable. For Ethiopia’s neighbors and partners, the lesson is equally clear: Abiy’s Red Sea fantasies are not about trade or development. They are about distraction, power, and survival. And they risk dragging an already fragile region toward the abyss.

Unless Ethiopia reorients itself toward genuine peace and cooperation, its leader will continue to burn bridges abroad while his people bleed at home. And no amount of Emirati funding or rhetorical confusion will mask that reality.

← Back to Ethiopia

Your Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience, analyze traffic, and show relevant content. You can accept all, reject non‑essential, or manage preferences.